Blockchain Predictions 2025
I like predictions made by Ray Kurzweil. They are fun and quite accurate. I believe that we are living in a time when a startup should make strategic business decisions based on such predictions. Otherwise, it risks to stay in a business just for a short time and eventually lose in a technology race.
Making predictions for cybernomics is risky but I decide to do it as I have something to share with you, on one hand, and, on the other, I want to test my own ability to forecast.
We are now in 2015. What I think of the current state of the blockchain economy could be found in Cybernetic Economy Report 2014 and 2015 H1.
The next 5 prediction are from those reports. By 2025:
- ~10B people (or almost all people) will use blockchains or distributed ledgers
- ~100B robots (or every machine) will use blockchains or distributed ledgers
- ~10B autonomous entities (AEs) will exist. AE is a new kind of a living form. AEs are decentralized autonomous organization of the decentralized applications that could exist as first class entities in computer networks without obtaining any material form.
- An exponential growth of the blockchain economy will lead to the obsolescence of fiat currencies that makes it hard to predict a volume of the cybernomics. But it should reach not less than 1Q in current USD.
- Existing legal system will become obsolete.
I am an economist. Exploration of blockchain and decentralized consensus protocols awakes in me a follower of the Austrian school of economic thought. Though cybernomics inherent so much austrian it is going far beyond. A good understanding of economic reasoning including a concept of diffusion of innovations enables me to SWAG based on existing feedback loops and extrapolations.
So the following predictions are in fact just an attempt to understand a fundamental transformation of our society that has been happening at high speed. To be honest I think my predictions are a little bit naive as in parallel great technologies are evolving such as CRISPR/Cas9 or Quantum computing consequences of which I am incompetent to evaluate.
How will we get there?
Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. Arthur Conan Doyle
Taken this for granted a task is not to invent anything but to put inevitable events on a timeline.
- Launches of Ethereum and SAFE Network enable reinvention of almost everything;
- 10M people recognize power and efficiency of the decentralized consensus for economic relationships.
- Ethereum or SAFE Network is acknowledged as the most powerful super computer in existence;
- First government is downloaded from an AppStore;
- First working network of autonomous devices;
- 10k operational autonomous entities emerge.
- 100k ATM across the globe accept cryptocurrencies;
- First country introduces blockchain-based currency and personal ID;
- Cybernomics is recognized by mainstream media as first truly global, ultimately efficient economy;
- 1M autonomous devices are managed by blockchains;
- Smart contracts become mainstream.
- 100M people realize a power of blockchain;
- First legal boarder crossing of a person with a decentralized ID happens.
- Almost any kind of government is available for download in app stores;
- First country with the dominance of the official cryptocurrency;
- Mesh networks enable provision of internet connection as essential right of any intelligent being;
- 10M autonomous devices are managed by blockchains.
- First decentralized orbital and suborbital networks of transmitting, computing and storing nodes are established.
- Decentralized prediction market goes mainstream thus disrupting the logic of existing economic relations.
- Digital signature is recognized and is said to be a human right;
- Capitalization of cybernetic economy passes $1T.
- 100k operational autonomous entities exist.
- Black Swan event: First collapse of one of the major reserve currency;
- Capitalization of the first decentralized autonomous organization passes $1T.
- Governments lose control over physical internet connections and thus an ability to collect taxes;
- Market of derivatives is fully converted to a blockchain;
- Any product or service is significantly cheaper to buy for cryptocurrency than for fiat money;
- 100M autonomous devices are managed by blockchains.
- 1B people use blockchain Apps on a daily basis just like we use Google or Facebook now;
- 1B autonomous robots are managed by blockchains;
- Fully convergent language for human-robot interactions appears;
- 1M operational autonomous entities exists;
- Capitalization of cybernetic economy passes $10T.
- Politicians become obsolete;
- Handwritten signature becomes a joke or illiteracy indicator;
- 10M operational autonomous entities exists.
- Essential Laws become obvious for any child;
- 10B autonomous robots are managed by blockchains;
- 100M operational autonomous entities exists;
- Capitalization of cybernetic economy passes $100T;
- All land property records are verifiable on a blockchain.
Augur - A Clear Future
Ray Kurzweil makes accuracy analysis of his predictions. The most comprehensive one was made in 2010 concerning predictions from 1999 to 2009.
This is not just a blog post. It is an experiment. I will put 100 ethers into decentralized prediction marketplace Augur thus allowing to compute my predictions even before they happen with >95% accuracy in 2020, five years earlier than a target time. That has never been done before. Moreover, this would work in favor of my predictions and, perhaps, make forecast less wrong. Once Augur is launched I will update this post putting links to bets. Exciting? Let’s check!
By the way: Augur’s crowdsale starts on 17th August.
Author: Dima Starodubcev