Blockchain Predictions 2025

I like predictions made by Ray Kurzweil. They are fun and quite accurate. I believe that we are living in a time when a startup should make strategic business decisions based on such predictions. Otherwise, it risks to stay in a business just for a short time and eventually lose in a technology race.

Making predictions for cybernomics is risky but I decide to do it as I have something to share with you, on one hand, and, on the other, I want to test my own ability to forecast.

Vision 2025

We are now in 2015. What I think of the current state of the blockchain economy could be found in Cybernetic Economy Report 2014 and 2015 H1.

The next 5 prediction are from those reports. By 2025:

~10B people (or almost all people) will use blockchains or distributed ledgers
~100B robots (or every machine) will use blockchains or distributed ledgers
~10B autonomous entities (AEs) will exist. AE is a new kind of a living form. AEs are decentralized autonomous organization of the decentralized applications that could exist as first class entities in computer networks without obtaining any material form.
An exponential growth of the blockchain economy will lead to the obsolescence of fiat currencies that makes it hard to predict a volume of the cybernomics. But it should reach not less than 1Q in current USD.
Existing legal system will become obsolete.

I am an economist. Exploration of blockchain and decentralized consensus protocols awakes in me a follower of the Austrian school of economic thought. Though cybernomics inherent so much austrian it is going far beyond. A good understanding of economic reasoning including a concept of diffusion of innovations enables me to SWAG based on existing feedback loops and extrapolations.

So the following predictions are in fact just an attempt to understand a fundamental transformation of our society that has been happening at high speed. To be honest I think my predictions are a little bit naive as in parallel great technologies are evolving such as CRISPR/Cas9 or Quantum computing consequences of which I am incompetent to evaluate.

How will we get there?

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. Arthur Conan Doyle

Taken this for granted a task is not to invent anything but to put inevitable events on a timeline.

2015

Launches of Ethereum and SAFE Network enable reinvention of almost everything;
10M people recognize power and efficiency of the decentralized consensus for economic relationships.

2016

Ethereum or SAFE Network is acknowledged as the most powerful super computer in existence;
First government is downloaded from an AppStore;
First working network of autonomous devices;
10k operational autonomous entities emerge.

2017

100k ATM across the globe accept cryptocurrencies;
First country introduces blockchain-based currency and personal ID;
Cybernomics is recognized by mainstream media as first truly global, ultimately efficient economy;
1M autonomous devices are managed by blockchains;
Smart contracts become mainstream.

2018

100M people realize a power of blockchain;
First legal boarder crossing of a person with a decentralized ID happens.
Almost any kind of government is available for download in app stores;
First country with the dominance of the official cryptocurrency;
Mesh networks enable provision of internet connection as essential right of any intelligent being;
10M autonomous devices are managed by blockchains.

2019

First decentralized orbital and suborbital networks of transmitting, computing and storing nodes are established.
Decentralized prediction market goes mainstream thus disrupting the logic of existing economic relations.
Digital signature is recognized and is said to be a human right;
Capitalization of cybernetic economy passes $1T.
100k operational autonomous entities exist.
Black Swan event: First collapse of one of the major reserve currency;

2020

Capitalization of the first decentralized autonomous organization passes $1T.
Governments lose control over physical internet connections and thus an ability to collect taxes;
Market of derivatives is fully converted to a blockchain;
Any product or service is significantly cheaper to buy for cryptocurrency than for fiat money;
100M autonomous devices are managed by blockchains.

2021

1B people use blockchain Apps on a daily basis just like we use Google or Facebook now;
1B autonomous robots are managed by blockchains;
Fully convergent language for human-robot interactions appears;
1M operational autonomous entities exists;
Capitalization of cybernetic economy passes $10T.

2022

Politicians become obsolete;
Handwritten signature becomes a joke or illiteracy indicator;
10M operational autonomous entities exists.

2023

Essential Laws become obvious for any child;
10B autonomous robots are managed by blockchains;
100M operational autonomous entities exists;
Capitalization of cybernetic economy passes $100T;
All land property records are verifiable on a blockchain.

Augur - A Clear Future

Ray Kurzweil makes accuracy analysis of his predictions. The most comprehensive one was made in 2010 concerning predictions from 1999 to 2009.

This is not just a blog post. It is an experiment. I will put 100 ethers into decentralized prediction marketplace Augur thus allowing to compute my predictions even before they happen with >95% accuracy in 2020, five years earlier than a target time. That has never been done before. Moreover, this would work in favor of my predictions and, perhaps, make forecast less wrong. Once Augur is launched I will update this post putting links to bets. Exciting? Let’s check!

By the way: Augur’s crowdsale starts on 17th August.

Author: Dima Starodubcev

Source: blog.cyber.fund/blockchain-predictions-2025-71586410cef6