Blockchain Predictions 2025

Illustration: Singularity by Aeoll

I like predictions made by Ray Kurzweil. They are fun and quite accurate. I believe that we are living in a time when a startup should make strategic business decisions based on such predictions. Otherwise, it risks to stay in a business just for a short time and eventually lose in a technology race.

Making predictions for cybernomics is risky but I decide to do it as I have something to share with you, on one hand, and, on the other, I want to test my own ability to forecast.

Vision 2025

We are now in 2015. What I think of the current state of the blockchain economy could be found in Cybernetic Economy Report 2014 and 2015 H1.

The next 5 prediction are from those reports. By 2025:

I am an economist. Exploration of blockchain and decentralized consensus protocols awakes in me a follower of the Austrian school of economic thought. Though cybernomics inherent so much austrian it is going far beyond. A good understanding of economic reasoning including a concept of diffusion of innovations enables me to SWAG based on existing feedback loops and extrapolations.

So the following predictions are in fact just an attempt to understand a fundamental transformation of our society that has been happening at high speed. To be honest I think my predictions are a little bit naive as in parallel great technologies are evolving such as CRISPR/Cas9 or Quantum computing consequences of which I am incompetent to evaluate.

How will we get there?

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. Arthur Conan Doyle

Taken this for granted a task is not to invent anything but to put inevitable events on a timeline.










Augur - A Clear Future

Ray Kurzweil makes accuracy analysis of his predictions. The most comprehensive one was made in 2010 concerning predictions from 1999 to 2009.

This is not just a blog post. It is an experiment. I will put 100 ethers into decentralized prediction marketplace Augur thus allowing to compute my predictions even before they happen with >95% accuracy in 2020, five years earlier than a target time. That has never been done before. Moreover, this would work in favor of my predictions and, perhaps, make forecast less wrong. Once Augur is launched I will update this post putting links to bets. Exciting? Let’s check!

By the way: Augur’s crowdsale starts on 17th August.

Author: Dima Starodubcev